US S&P Global manufacturing flash PMI 52.4 vs 56.0 expected

  • Prior was 57.5
  • Services 51.6 vs 53.5 expected
  • Prior services 53.5
  • Composite 51.2 vs 53.8 prior
  • Services rate of input price inflation was the softest for five months and eased notably from May
  • The rise in manufacturing input prices was the slowest since April 2021

This is a sizeable miss and evidence of a quick slowdown in demand, though it’s still in positive territory (above 50). This report is consistent with a shifting narrative away from inflation worries and towards growth worries.

S&P Global: “business confidence slumped to one of the greatest extents seen since comparable data were available in 2012, down to the lowest since September 2020.”

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:

“The pace of US economic growth has slowed sharply in June, with deteriorating forward-looking indicators setting the scene for an economic contraction in the third quarter. The survey data is consistent with the economy expanding at an annualized rate of less than 1% in June, with the goods-producing sector already in decline and the vast service sector slowing sharply.

“Enjoyed a mini-boom from returning consumers after the relaxation of pandemic restrictions, many services are now seeing householdsHaving struggle with the rising cost of living of non-essential producers seeing a similar drop in orders.

“There has consequently been a remarkable drop in demand for goods and services during June compared to prior months.

“Businesses have become much more concerned about the outlook as a result of the rising cost of living and drop in demand, as well as the aggressive interest rate path outlined by the Federal Reserve

Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve System, more commonly known as the Fed, represents the central banking system of the United States. Like other central banks globally, the Fed is responsible for monetary policy, in this case in the US.The Fed is one of the most watched and followed entities for forex traders, given its material impact on the US dollar. Founded initially in 1913, the Fed was created to perform a wide range of functions. This includes stabilizing and maintaining flexible monetary policy in the US while buttressing a financial system for the country. Its general duties are setting and guiding monetary policy and overseeing effective economic operation, both of which are at the service of the public interest. How the Federal Reserve Affects ForexThe Fed can materially impact the US dollar by virtue of the interest rate it sets, measured by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. The current interest rate and the expectations of future interest rate changes can influence the value of the US Dollar. For example, if traders anticipate a change in interest rates based on announcements from the Board of Governors, this can cause the US dollar to appreciate or depreciate in value against other currencies.Forex traders should always be aware of meetings and announcements from the Fed and should keep track of developments within the central bank.Ultimately, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds eight regular meetings per calendar year, where policies and interest rates are discussed and agreed upon. The best course of action is to keep up with news ahead of these meetings as a forex trader to make predictions about interest rates, and whether to buy or sell the US dollar.

The Federal Reserve System, more commonly known as the Fed, represents the central banking system of the United States. Like other central banks globally, the Fed is responsible for monetary policy, in this case in the US.The Fed is one of the most watched and followed entities for forex traders, given its material impact on the US dollar. Founded initially in 1913, the Fed was created to perform a wide range of functions. This includes stabilizing and maintaining flexible monetary policy in the US while buttressing a financial system for the country. Its general duties are setting and guiding monetary policy and overseeing effective economic operation, both of which are at the service of the public interest. How the Federal Reserve Affects ForexThe Fed can materially impact the US dollar by virtue of the interest rate it sets, measured by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. The current interest rate and the expectations of future interest rate changes can influence the value of the US Dollar. For example, if traders anticipate a change in interest rates based on announcements from the Board of Governors, this can cause the US dollar to appreciate or depreciate in value against other currencies.Forex traders should always be aware of meetings and announcements from the Fed and should keep track of developments within the central bank.Ultimately, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds eight regular meetings per calendar year, where policies and interest rates are discussed and agreed upon. The best course of action is to keep up with news ahead of these meetings as a forex trader to make predictions about interest rates, and whether to buy or sell the US dollar.
Read this Term and the concomitant deterioration in broader financial conditions. Business confidence is now at a level which would typically herald an economic downturn, adding to the risk of recession.

“A corollary of the drop in demand was less pressure on prices, with the survey’s inflation

Inflation

Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is measured by the level of the total money supply of a specific currency, for example the US dollar, which is constantly increasing. However, an increase in the money supply does not necessarily mean that there is inflation. What leads to inflation is a faster increase in the money supply in relation to the wealth produced (measured with GDP). As such, this generates pressure of demand on a supply that does not increase at the same rate. The consumer price index increases then, generating inflation. How does Inflation Affect Forex? The level of inflation has a direct impact on the exchange rate between two currencies on several levels.This includes purchasing power parity, which attempts to compare different purchasing powers of each country according to the general price level. In doing so, this makes it possible to determine the country with the most expensive cost of living.The currency with the higher inflation rate consequently loses value and depreciates, while the currency with the lower inflation rate appreciates on the forex market.Interest rates are also impacted. Inflation rates that are too high push interest rates up, which has the effect of depreciating the currency on foreign exchange. Conversely, inflation that is too low (or deflation) pushes interest rates down, which has the effect of appreciating the currency on the forex market.

Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is measured by the level of the total money supply of a specific currency, for example the US dollar, which is constantly increasing. However, an increase in the money supply does not necessarily mean that there is inflation. What leads to inflation is a faster increase in the money supply in relation to the wealth produced (measured with GDP). As such, this generates pressure of demand on a supply that does not increase at the same rate. The consumer price index increases then, generating inflation. How does Inflation Affect Forex? The level of inflation has a direct impact on the exchange rate between two currencies on several levels.This includes purchasing power parity, which attempts to compare different purchasing powers of each country according to the general price level. In doing so, this makes it possible to determine the country with the most expensive cost of living.The currency with the higher inflation rate consequently loses value and depreciates, while the currency with the lower inflation rate appreciates on the forex market.Interest rates are also impacted. Inflation rates that are too high push interest rates up, which has the effect of depreciating the currency on foreign exchange. Conversely, inflation that is too low (or deflation) pushes interest rates down, which has the effect of appreciating the currency on the forex market.
Read this Term gauges for firms’ costs and their selling prices falling sharply in June to suggest that, although still elevated, price pressures have peaked.”